Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.89 – 111.37

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±12.2

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 8.92Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 32.97Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±12.4

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 30.54Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 5.45Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 75.38Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6057, 2832, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6057, 2832, 8179

Auto

20.4 24%

Teleop

42.3 49%

Endgame

23.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6029, 6101, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6029, 6101, 910

Auto

26.5 25%

Teleop

46.3 43%

Endgame

34.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.5
Score range: 61–135
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 134.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.1Season APEX324.7

20.4Auto26.5

42.3Teleop46.3

23.1Endgame34

41Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	23	95
endgame	14	38
foul	0	0
total	63	164

Result

Final score

63 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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