Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.91 – 143.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±12.2

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 29.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 25.11Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 68.93Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±14.1

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 57.73Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 60.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6914, 8427, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 8427, 217

Auto

25.9 23%

Teleop

56.5 50%

Endgame

31.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4390, 6570, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4390, 6570, 6861

Auto

28.5 20%

Teleop

85.9 61%

Endgame

26.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score143.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.9
Score range: 100–168
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 134.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247Season APEX279.6

25.9Auto28.5

56.5Teleop85.9

31.3Endgame26.3

23Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	28
teleop	98	59
endgame	53	26
foul	0	10
total	161	123

Result

Final score

161 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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