Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.19 – 82.94

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266 ±12.2

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 6.05Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 28.82Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 34.32Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±12.8

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -5.02Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 79.96Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 8Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5090, 5263, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5090, 5263, 2834

Auto

30.1 43%

Teleop

33.3 47%

Endgame

7.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6618, 247, 6101

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6618, 247, 6101

Auto

14.5 18%

Teleop

47.3 57%

Endgame

20.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.2pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.7
Score range: 45–107
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 135.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266Season APEX249.9

30.1Auto14.5

33.3Teleop47.3

7.2Endgame20.9

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	31	39
endgame	20	11
foul	0	5
total	64	70

Result

Final score

64 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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