Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.27 – 81.54

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±11.7

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 21.96Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 92.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 29.72Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±10.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 4.85Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 41.69Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 35Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2620, 9572, 815

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2620, 9572, 815

Auto

40.4 29%

Teleop

82.0 59%

Endgame

17.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 240, 8179, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 240, 8179, 3604

Auto

17.9 22%

Teleop

46.6 57%

Endgame

17.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.3pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 58–168
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.9Season APEX368

40.4Auto17.9

82Teleop46.6

17.3Endgame17.6

48Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	15
teleop	91	34
endgame	41	45
foul	5	5
total	157	99

Result

Final score

157 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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