Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.85 – 362.44

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.9 ±11.1

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 130.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 21.73Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 14.34Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.1 ±10.7

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 263.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.56Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 82.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 9226, 9182

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 9226, 9182

Auto

37.0 24%

Teleop

85.6 55%

Endgame

32.1 21%

Strengths

· 469 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7769, 5901, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 5901, 5907

Auto

93.2 26%

Teleop

206.2 57%

Endgame

60.9 17%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.9pts

Blue projected score362.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.6
Score range: 143–386
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 134.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.9Season APEX769.1

37Auto93.2

85.6Teleop206.2

32.1Endgame60.9

81Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	68
teleop	48	203
endgame	17	38
foul	0	5
total	113	314

Result

Final score

113 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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