Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.62 – 159.12

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.4 ±11.7

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 51.05Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 72.52Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 6.05Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±11.6

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 79.24Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 38.72Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 41.16Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6570, 910, 9148

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 910, 9148

Auto

39.7 30%

Teleop

75.0 56%

Endgame

18.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 217, 2832, 5050

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 217, 2832, 5050

Auto

31.1 21%

Teleop

73.1 48%

Endgame

46.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.6pts

Blue projected score159.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.5
Score range: 106–183
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.4Season APEX237.2

39.7Auto31.1

75Teleop73.1

18.4Endgame46.9

45Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	26
teleop	112	29
endgame	26	22
foul	10	0
total	179	77

Result

Final score

179 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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