Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.39 – 112.15

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.4 ±12.4

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 27.01Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 47.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 17.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±11.7

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 27.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 61.13Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 23.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6029, 6152, 8427

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6029, 6152, 8427

Auto

22.1 24%

Teleop

41.3 44%

Endgame

30.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6914, 1189, 5263

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 1189, 5263

Auto

20.1 18%

Teleop

72.3 66%

Endgame

17.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.4pts

Blue projected score112.2pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.8
Score range: 68–136
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 134.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.4Season APEX390.3

22.1Auto20.1

41.3Teleop72.3

30.1Endgame17.9

34Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	77	76
endgame	40	25
foul	10	5
total	146	134

Result

Final score

146 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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