Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.24 – 146.03

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±12.2

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 49.33Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 39.25Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 16.66Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.3 ±11.2

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 37.81Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 67.57Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 40.65Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8124, 2834, 5498

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8124, 2834, 5498

Auto

30.2 28%

Teleop

42.3 40%

Endgame

34.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 815, 6528, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 815, 6528, 8179

Auto

32.2 23%

Teleop

81.6 59%

Endgame

23.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.2pts

Blue projected score146pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.8
Score range: 81–170
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 134.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.6Season APEX391.3

30.2Auto32.2

42.3Teleop81.6

34.4Endgame23.6

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	28
teleop	45	71
endgame	10	15
foul	5	0
total	78	114

Result

Final score

78 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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