Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.66 – 160.04

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.5 ±13.7

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 23.88Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 260.86Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 1.92Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±11.7

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 133.28Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 15.77Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 10.99Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4390, 7769, 6101

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4390, 7769, 6101

Auto

68.0 24%

Teleop

166.9 58%

Endgame

51.9 18%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 1528, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

160 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 1528, 240

Auto

37.7 24%

Teleop

90.0 57%

Endgame

28.9 18%

Strengths

· 469 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.7pts

Blue projected score160pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.6
Score range: 136–311
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.5Season APEX336.6

68Auto37.7

166.9Teleop90

51.9Endgame28.9

81Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	34
teleop	202	46
endgame	39	0
foul	5	5
total	326	85

Result

Final score

326 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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