Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.21 – 73.39

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±12.7

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 18.06Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 25.18Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 65.97Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.4 ±12.2

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -9.5Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 2.88Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 80.01Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5901, 9226, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5901, 9226, 6861

Auto

22.1 21%

Teleop

47.2 46%

Endgame

34.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8362, 5090, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8362, 5090, 247

Auto

10.7 15%

Teleop

48.8 70%

Endgame

10.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.2pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 49–133
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 133.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX237.4

22.1Auto10.7

47.2Teleop48.8

34.3Endgame10.2

116Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	45	38
endgame	10	37
foul	0	0
total	68	87

Result

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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