Qualification · Qualification 54
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
69.43 – 161.44
24%76%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
79 – 103
Prediction correct · off by 34 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 39.73Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -3.63Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 33.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 15.75Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 232Event APEX 98.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 47.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2832, 6618, 3604
39
/ 100 compatProjected
69.4 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2832, 6618, 3604
Auto
17.8 26%
Teleop
25.8 37%
Endgame
26.2 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 9148, 9572, 7174
74
/ 100 compatProjected
161.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 9148, 9572, 7174
Auto
43.8 28%
Teleop
76.4 49%
Endgame
36.7 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.17
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score69.4pts
Blue projected score161.4pts
Red win probability24%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -92
- Score range
- 45–185
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
363.9Season APEX442.3
17.8Auto43.8
25.8Teleop76.4
26.2Endgame36.7
0Consistency56
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 27 |
| teleop | 34 | 72 |
| endgame | 18 | 4 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 79 | 103 |
Result
Final score
79 – 103
Prediction correct · off by 34 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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