Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.44 – 78.45

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±12.4

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 32.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 22.79Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 57.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.3 ±11.1

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 61.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 30.75Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -13.93Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 815, 6029, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 815, 6029, 1189

Auto

19.3 17%

Teleop

57.4 50%

Endgame

37.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 5050, 9182

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 5050, 9182

Auto

16.7 24%

Teleop

30.1 43%

Endgame

23.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.4pts

Blue projected score78.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 54–137
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.4Season APEX328.3

19.3Auto16.7

57.4Teleop30.1

37.1Endgame23.4

70Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	72	113
endgame	10	60
foul	5	5
total	118	198

Result

Final score

118 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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