Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.06 – 175.3

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532 ±10.7

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 2.26Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 70.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 104.54Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.4 ±13.7

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 21.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 41.63Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 111.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8362, 1189, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8362, 1189, 910

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

91.7 54%

Endgame

43.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4390, 8124, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4390, 8124, 469

Auto

47.1 27%

Teleop

94.7 54%

Endgame

33.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.1pts

Blue projected score175.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.8
Score range: 148–204
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532Season APEX377.4

35.6Auto47.1

91.7Teleop94.7

43.8Endgame33.7

73Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	58
teleop	32	114
endgame	56	10
foul	0	0
total	108	182

Result

Final score

108 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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