Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.6 – 48.54

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±11.6

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 38.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 16.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 57.14Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±13.9

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -5.03Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 55.15Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -1.58Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 6914, 6861

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 6914, 6861

Auto

24.9 24%

Teleop

68.8 65%

Endgame

12.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8362, 8124, 6618

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8362, 8124, 6618

Auto

21.3 46%

Teleop

13.0 28%

Endgame

12.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.6pts

Blue projected score48.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.1
Score range: 25–137
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.8Season APEX174.9

24.9Auto21.3

68.8Teleop13

12.2Endgame12

52Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	133	13
endgame	33	14
foul	15	5
total	197	41

Result

Final score

197 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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