Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.77 – 106.89

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±12.7

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 19.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 19.7Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 39.76Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.4 ±10.5

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 31.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 48.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 27.26Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5263, 9226, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5263, 9226, 2832

Auto

26.0 33%

Teleop

45.5 57%

Endgame

8.4 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7174, 1189, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7174, 1189, 2834

Auto

21.7 22%

Teleop

59.6 61%

Endgame

17.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.8pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.1
Score range: 56–130
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.2Season APEX580.4

26Auto21.7

45.5Teleop59.6

8.4Endgame17.2

62Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	44
teleop	40	85
endgame	29	62
foul	5	0
total	90	191

Result

Final score

90 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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