Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.78 – 183.03

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.1 ±13.9

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 4.2Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -0.33Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 34.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.5 ±9.9

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 53.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 97.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 31.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6101, 8362, 815

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6101, 8362, 815

Auto

4.7 15%

Teleop

1.1 4%

Endgame

25.3 81%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6861, 9572, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6861, 9572, 6152

Auto

34.5 19%

Teleop

102.9 56%

Endgame

46.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score183pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.2
Score range: 16–206
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.1Season APEX636.5

4.7Auto34.5

1.1Teleop102.9

25.3Endgame46.4

81Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	63
teleop	13	110
endgame	6	42
foul	5	0
total	37	215

Result

Final score

37 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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