Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.84 – 156.14

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 58.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±13.2

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 3.67Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 54.28Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 10.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±11.7

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 78.25Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 44.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 33.35Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5498, 6528, 4390

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5498, 6528, 4390

Auto

25.3 38%

Teleop

28.8 43%

Endgame

12.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 247, 8179, 6029

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 247, 8179, 6029

Auto

24.0 16%

Teleop

82.2 54%

Endgame

45.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.8pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.3
Score range: 46–179
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.4Season APEX271.1

25.3Auto24

28.8Teleop82.2

12.3Endgame45.2

75Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	27
teleop	76	80
endgame	58	28
foul	10	0
total	165	135

Result

Final score

165 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 58.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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