Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.96 – 107.01

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.8 ±9.9

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 40.31Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 53.74Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 104.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±12.4

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 31.07Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 70.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 5.67Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 6570, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 6570, 9572

Auto

49.5 26%

Teleop

98.2 51%

Endgame

45.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6029, 5907, 9148

/ 100 compat

Projected

107 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6029, 5907, 9148

Auto

34.4 33%

Teleop

56.6 54%

Endgame

14.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199pts

Blue projected score107pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92
Score range: 80–226
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.8Season APEX426.3

49.5Auto34.4

98.2Teleop56.6

45.1Endgame14.5

45Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	39
teleop	120	50
endgame	63	20
foul	0	0
total	220	109

Result

Final score

220 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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