Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.4 – 68.2

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±11.2

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 48.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 72.77Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -7.58Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.7 ±12.8

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 26.11Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 19.23Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 22.86Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1189, 217, 6618

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 217, 6618

Auto

24.1 21%

Teleop

60.3 54%

Endgame

27.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2834, 6057, 5901

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2834, 6057, 5901

Auto

23.2 32%

Teleop

27.0 37%

Endgame

22.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.4pts

Blue projected score68.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.2
Score range: 45–136
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.6Season APEX263.7

24.1Auto23.2

60.3Teleop27

27.7Endgame22.9

58Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	18
teleop	76	31
endgame	22	23
foul	0	5
total	145	77

Result

Final score

145 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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