Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.23 – 57.62

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.8 ±13.3

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 30.11Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 38.58Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 7.54Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±11.7

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 5.44Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -8.39Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 60.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5050, 9148, 6101

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5050, 9148, 6101

Auto

14.8 22%

Teleop

29.2 43%

Endgame

23.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 240, 8362, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 240, 8362, 5907

Auto

20.6 35%

Teleop

16.8 29%

Endgame

21.5 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.2pts

Blue projected score57.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.6
Score range: 35–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.8Season APEX433.9

14.8Auto20.6

29.2Teleop16.8

23.6Endgame21.5

43Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	29	62
endgame	3	25
foul	0	0
total	44	112

Result

Final score

44 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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