Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.37 – 22.19

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±10.5

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 38.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 50.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -2.71Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145 ±13.9

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 33.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -2.61Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -8.49Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 5907, 5498

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 5907, 5498

Auto

45.9 51%

Teleop

45.6 50%

Endgame

-1.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8427, 1528, 8362

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8427, 1528, 8362

Auto

-3.4 0%

Teleop

-10.7 0%

Endgame

27.3 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.4pts

Blue projected score22.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.2
Score range: -1–109
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.1Season APEX145

45.9Auto-3.4

45.6Teleop-10.7

-1Endgame27.3

56Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	6
teleop	76	8
endgame	29	2
foul	0	0
total	146	16

Result

Final score

146 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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