Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.87 – 110.8

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±11.7

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 8.28Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 31.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 16.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.4 ±11

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 55.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 38.53Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 17.24Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6101, 3604, 6914

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6101, 3604, 6914

Auto

8.6 19%

Teleop

8.1 18%

Endgame

28.6 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3322, 6861, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3322, 6861, 2834

Auto

30.0 28%

Teleop

53.2 50%

Endgame

23.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score110.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.9
Score range: 33–134
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.7Season APEX429.4

8.6Auto30

8.1Teleop53.2

28.6Endgame23.3

56Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	49	140
endgame	28	38
foul	5	0
total	94	200

Result

Final score

94 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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