Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.85 – 100.12

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±12.2

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 61.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 3.66Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 18.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.6 ±11.1

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 56.01Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -8.61Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 52.72Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 247, 240, 5263

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 247, 240, 5263

Auto

1.8 2%

Teleop

56.0 62%

Endgame

32.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6528, 9182, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6528, 9182, 2832

Auto

11.4 12%

Teleop

54.2 56%

Endgame

31.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.9pts

Blue projected score100.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 62–122
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.9Season APEX371.6

1.8Auto11.4

56Teleop54.2

32Endgame31.3

75Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	74	49
endgame	46	13
foul	0	5
total	136	88

Result

Final score

136 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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