Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.05 – 89.56

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584.5 ±10.7

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 42.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 125.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 11.88Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±12.2

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 35.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 37.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 16.11Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6152, 469, 5901

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6152, 469, 5901

Auto

60.7 34%

Teleop

91.6 52%

Endgame

25.5 14%

Strengths

· 469 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7174, 8179, 10606

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7174, 8179, 10606

Auto

26.0 30%

Teleop

42.7 50%

Endgame

17.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.1pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.5
Score range: 66–204
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 133.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584.5Season APEX312.3

60.7Auto26

91.6Teleop42.7

25.5Endgame17.2

45Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	132	61
endgame	65	45
foul	0	0
total	225	127

Result

Final score

225 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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