Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.42 – 146.4

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±12.2

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 31.55Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 78.16Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 1.71Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.1 ±11.6

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 27.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 77.6Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 41.74Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9226, 217, 1528

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9226, 217, 1528

Auto

30.0 28%

Teleop

55.0 51%

Endgame

22.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6914, 247, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 247, 2832

Auto

22.7 16%

Teleop

73.0 53%

Endgame

42.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.4pts

Blue projected score146.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35
Score range: 84–173
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX295.1

30Auto22.7

55Teleop73

22.9Endgame42.1

19Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	13
teleop	51	68
endgame	21	31
foul	15	0
total	123	112

Result

Final score

123 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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