Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.96 – 104.61

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177 ±12.7

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 46.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 44.86Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 33.09Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.1 ±13.7

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 43.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 40.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 20.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6570, 5050, 6057

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 5050, 6057

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

80.5 63%

Endgame

27.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 9148, 4390

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 9148, 4390

Auto

20.4 19%

Teleop

80.5 73%

Endgame

8.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 83–146
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177Season APEX378.1

18.6Auto20.4

80.5Teleop80.5

27.7Endgame8.8

35Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	28
teleop	52	79
endgame	33	5
foul	5	0
total	104	112

Result

Final score

104 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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