Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.2 – 100.45

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315 ±12.4

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -9.66Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 18.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 108.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±13.3

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 30.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 41.61Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 28.21Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1528, 6029, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1528, 6029, 9572

Auto

19.5 18%

Teleop

65.7 59%

Endgame

26.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 815, 8427, 9226

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 815, 8427, 9226

Auto

19.9 23%

Teleop

36.3 41%

Endgame

32.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.2pts

Blue projected score100.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: 78–139
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315Season APEX189.7

19.5Auto19.9

65.7Teleop36.3

26.2Endgame32.2

124Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	11
teleop	99	31
endgame	36	15
foul	0	0
total	165	57

Result

Final score

165 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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