Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.32 – 197.89

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.8 ±9.9

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 52.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 53.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 20.45Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±11.7

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 218.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX -11.65Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -8.85Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 5907, 5090

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 5907, 5090

Auto

38.5 29%

Teleop

53.9 41%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7769, 5263, 5498

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 5263, 5498

Auto

56.4 28%

Teleop

114.7 57%

Endgame

29.4 15%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.3pts

Blue projected score197.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.6
Score range: 105–219
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.8Season APEX481.8

38.5Auto56.4

53.9Teleop114.7

38.2Endgame29.4

159Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	91
teleop	98	192
endgame	21	57
foul	5	0
total	176	340

Result

Final score

176 – 340

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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