Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.93 – 125.82

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.9 ±11.2

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 12.77Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 85.39Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 29.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.3 ±12.2

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 54.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9182Tech Tr1be

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 8.2Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 63.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6101, 217, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6101, 217, 6152

Auto

31.9 26%

Teleop

59.1 49%

Endgame

30.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8179, 9182, 8124

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 9182, 8124

Auto

31.8 26%

Teleop

83.3 69%

Endgame

5.9 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 104–150
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.9Season APEX196.3

31.9Auto31.8

59.1Teleop83.3

30.6Endgame5.9

127Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	22
teleop	36	22
endgame	37	14
foul	0	5
total	93	63

Result

Final score

93 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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