Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.92 – 126.09

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.7 ±12.1

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 21.57Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 55.59Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -6.24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.2

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 42.77Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 45.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 38.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6861, 7174, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6861, 7174, 240

Auto

5.9 10%

Teleop

31.7 54%

Endgame

20.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6057, 3322, 9226

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6057, 3322, 9226

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

45.6 38%

Endgame

50.6 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.2
Score range: 49–148
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.7Season APEX258.2

5.9Auto22.3

31.7Teleop45.6

20.7Endgame50.6

115Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	65	68
endgame	34	8
foul	0	0
total	111	95

Result

Final score

111 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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