Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.76 – 210.09

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±12.7

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 13.97Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 1.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 22.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 617.1 ±9.3

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 47.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 120.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 42.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10606, 5498, 6914

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 5498, 6914

Auto

18.1 49%

Teleop

15.8 43%

Endgame

2.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1189, 9572, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1189, 9572, 247

Auto

31.7 15%

Teleop

109.0 52%

Endgame

69.9 33%

Strengths

· 9572 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.8pts

Blue projected score210.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.3
Score range: 15–233
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 126.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.7Season APEX617.1

18.1Auto31.7

15.8Teleop109

2.8Endgame69.9

186Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	7	150
endgame	0	51
foul	0	0
total	23	217

Result

Final score

23 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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