Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.57 – 106.68

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±12.4

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 87.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 34.04Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 18.13Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±11.7

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 2.41Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 51.98Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 52.29Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 815, 9148

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 815, 9148

Auto

45.1 31%

Teleop

68.7 48%

Endgame

29.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2620, 8427, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2620, 8427, 6528

Auto

32.6 30%

Teleop

41.4 38%

Endgame

34.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.6pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.9
Score range: 84–163
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 125.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.3Season APEX359.6

45.1Auto32.6

68.7Teleop41.4

29.9Endgame34

116Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	6
teleop	108	55
endgame	39	21
foul	0	15
total	207	97

Result

Final score

207 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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