Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.31 – 94.77

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.3 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 11.24Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 31.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 46.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.9 ±12.1

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 54.4Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX -1.27Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 41.64Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6152, 910, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6152, 910, 8179

Auto

25.4 26%

Teleop

59.8 62%

Endgame

11.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9226, 240, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9226, 240, 6570

Auto

15.3 16%

Teleop

43.2 46%

Endgame

35.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 66–118
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.3Season APEX215.9

25.4Auto15.3

59.8Teleop43.2

11.3Endgame35.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	17
teleop	93	34
endgame	3	14
foul	0	0
total	144	65

Result

Final score

144 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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