Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.56 – 83.2

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±13.1

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 30.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 27.03Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 48.93Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.2 ±12.4

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 45.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 32.32Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 5.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3322, 4390, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3322, 4390, 217

Auto

30.0 31%

Teleop

43.6 45%

Endgame

23.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3604, 815, 10606

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 815, 10606

Auto

20.9 24%

Teleop

43.6 51%

Endgame

21.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.6pts

Blue projected score83.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 59–131
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.6Season APEX337.2

30Auto20.9

43.6Teleop43.6

23.4Endgame21.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	15
teleop	102	30
endgame	25	28
foul	0	15
total	156	88

Result

Final score

156 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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