Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.11 – 95.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±12.8

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -3.75Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 30.86Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 32Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±9.9

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 30.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 53.27Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 11.16Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10606, 8362, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 8362, 217

Auto

14.4 26%

Teleop

21.9 39%

Endgame

19.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 3604, 5498

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 3604, 5498

Auto

16.1 17%

Teleop

43.6 45%

Endgame

36.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.1pts

Blue projected score95.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.2
Score range: 36–118
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.4Season APEX495.3

14.4Auto16.1

21.9Teleop43.6

19.8Endgame36.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	28
teleop	39	22
endgame	32	14
foul	0	0
total	99	64

Result

Final score

99 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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