Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.54 – 98.33

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.3 ±12.2

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 104.57Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 32.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 0.68Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.3 ±11.7

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 22.64Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 32.29Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 43.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5050, 3322, 6618

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5050, 3322, 6618

Auto

31.3 24%

Teleop

73.0 56%

Endgame

26.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2832, 6101, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2832, 6101, 469

Auto

22.9 25%

Teleop

55.2 59%

Endgame

15.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.5pts

Blue projected score98.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.2
Score range: 77–159
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.3Season APEX380.3

31.3Auto22.9

73Teleop55.2

26.1Endgame15.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	65	103
endgame	44	50
foul	5	0
total	128	185

Result

Final score

128 – 185

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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