Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.85 – 60.29

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±11.7

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 72.68Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 6.66Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 14.51Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.3 ±13.9

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 22.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 8.24Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 29.88Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 6057, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6528, 6057, 240

Auto

14.7 17%

Teleop

41.7 48%

Endgame

30.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5263, 6618, 815

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5263, 6618, 815

Auto

16.3 29%

Teleop

32.3 57%

Endgame

8.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.9pts

Blue projected score60.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 33–121
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 151.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.8Season APEX163.3

14.7Auto16.3

41.7Teleop32.3

30.5Endgame8.2

113Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	8
teleop	37	12
endgame	45	2
foul	0	0
total	88	22

Result

Final score

88 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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