FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.22 – 198.2

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±11

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 88.86Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 75.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.1 ±10.5

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 53.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 74.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 70.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 1025, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 1025, 4422

Auto

34.0 20%

Teleop

97.3 58%

Endgame

36.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 11386, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 11386, 7501

Auto

47.4 25%

Teleop

95.7 50%

Endgame

47.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.2pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26
Score range: 142–228
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.6Season APEX275.1

34Auto47.4

97.3Teleop95.7

36.3Endgame47.8

80Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	42
teleop	82	73
endgame	77	41
foul	0	35
total	176	191

Result

Final score

176 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Match videos

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