FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.43 – 177.73

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.7 ±10.5

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 13.23Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 126.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 162.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±11

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 10.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 90.8Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 76.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3773, 9210, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 9210, 3414

Auto

47.3 16%

Teleop

173.1 58%

Endgame

79.8 27%

Strengths

· 3414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5530, 1025, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 1025, 4422

Auto

33.8 20%

Teleop

101.8 59%

Endgame

36.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.4pts

Blue projected score177.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.7
Score range: 149–330
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.7Season APEX338.6

47.3Auto33.8

173.1Teleop101.8

79.8Endgame36.6

35Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	36
teleop	197	76
endgame	81	35
foul	0	0
total	349	147

Result

Final score

349 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Match videos

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