FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.96 – 208.7

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±11

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 11.56Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1025Impi Warriors

Season APEX 161.7Event APEX 90.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 76.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±12.7

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 84.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 40.66Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7656MC Hammers

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 83.22Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 1025, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 1025, 4422

Auto

39.8 23%

Teleop

96.2 55%

Endgame

37.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4003, 7225, 7656

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4003, 7225, 7656

Auto

23.0 11%

Teleop

126.7 62%

Endgame

53.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179pts

Blue projected score208.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 150–238
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.6Season APEX257.6

39.8Auto23

96.2Teleop126.7

37.7Endgame53.8

59Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	119	34
endgame	27	33
foul	5	0
total	169	102

Result

Final score

169 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 58.3 pts

Match videos

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