FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.11 – 109.24

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.7 ±10.5

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 9.01Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 122.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 157.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±12.8

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.81Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 31.44Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 24.99Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3773, 9210, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3773, 9210, 3414

Auto

44.2 15%

Teleop

166.6 58%

Endgame

77.2 27%

Strengths

· 3414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 5205, 11462

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 5205, 11462

Auto

22.7 20%

Teleop

59.0 52%

Endgame

31.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.1pts

Blue projected score109.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.9
Score range: 80–318
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.7Season APEX219

44.2Auto22.7

166.6Teleop59

77.2Endgame31.6

63Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	31
teleop	196	13
endgame	85	12
foul	0	0
total	347	56

Result

Final score

347 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 pts

Match videos

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