FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.49 – 117.66

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 117.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.9 ±13.3

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 59.63Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 67.43Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 47.43Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344 ±12.2

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 10.6Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4003TriSonics

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 47.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 59.63Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6556, 11444, 3773

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6556, 11444, 3773

Auto

24.6 14%

Teleop

96.6 55%

Endgame

53.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11462, 4003, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11462, 4003, 2611

Auto

24.4 21%

Teleop

60.0 51%

Endgame

33.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.5pts

Blue projected score117.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.8
Score range: 96–196
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.9Season APEX344

24.6Auto24.4

96.6Teleop60

53.2Endgame33.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	46
teleop	29	145
endgame	15	49
foul	5	0
total	61	240

Result

Final score

61 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 117.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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