FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.62 – 79.91

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±12.8

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 6.77Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 57.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±12.8

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 6.77Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 39.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 34Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9312, 5239, 9594

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 5239, 9594

Auto

21.6 21%

Teleop

51.4 50%

Endgame

30.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7225, 11460, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7225, 11460, 4381

Auto

20.5 26%

Teleop

34.0 43%

Endgame

25.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.6pts

Blue projected score79.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 57–127
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.8Season APEX218.4

21.6Auto20.5

51.4Teleop34

30.5Endgame25.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	36
teleop	35	49
endgame	24	30
foul	0	0
total	79	115

Result

Final score

79 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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