FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.6 – 153.73

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.2 ±12.8

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 15.5Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5239The Royal Stags

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 27.41Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 75.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.7 ±11.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 52.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7656MC Hammers

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 84.1Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 16.68Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7221, 5239, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7221, 5239, 1481

Auto

24.2 21%

Teleop

58.7 51%

Endgame

33.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 7656, 11444

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 7656, 11444

Auto

27.3 19%

Teleop

67.2 47%

Endgame

47.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.6pts

Blue projected score153.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: 90–183
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.2Season APEX256.7

24.2Auto27.3

58.7Teleop67.2

33.3Endgame47.9

21Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	21
teleop	132	66
endgame	27	50
foul	0	0
total	215	137

Result

Final score

215 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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