FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.14 – 104.45

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±12.8

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 45.7Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 122.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 29.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.6 ±11.7

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 2.83Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 37.39Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 64.23Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9594, 9210, 11496

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9594, 9210, 11496

Auto

26.5 14%

Teleop

119.1 62%

Endgame

45.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9753, 9312, 5676

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9753, 9312, 5676

Auto

31.1 29%

Teleop

54.1 51%

Endgame

21.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.1pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.7
Score range: 75–227
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.5Season APEX246.6

26.5Auto31.1

119.1Teleop54.1

45.9Endgame21.3

48Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	97	73
endgame	91	24
foul	0	0
total	209	122

Result

Final score

209 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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