FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.69 – 49.84

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±12.8

11460Olivet Eaglebots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 27.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 73.77Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6556Spartan Robotics 6556

Season APEX 35Event APEX 28.46Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.9 ±12.7

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 34.97Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 4.88Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 9.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11460, 11386, 6556

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11460, 11386, 6556

Auto

38.0 31%

Teleop

62.3 51%

Endgame

21.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4216, 3773, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4216, 3773, 5530

Auto

15.8 30%

Teleop

24.3 46%

Endgame

12.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score49.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.9
Score range: 21–159
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.9Season APEX175.9

38Auto15.8

62.3Teleop24.3

21.4Endgame12.8

53Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	27
teleop	23	33
endgame	25	28
foul	0	0
total	90	88

Result

Final score

90 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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