FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.14 – 52.64

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.6 ±12.2

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 16.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 21.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380 ±12.2

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX -Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 16.57Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 14.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11496, 8300, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11496, 8300, 4422

Auto

20.3 33%

Teleop

24.6 40%

Endgame

16.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1481, 5641, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1481, 5641, 11387

Auto

12.2 23%

Teleop

25.6 49%

Endgame

14.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.1pts

Blue projected score52.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.5
Score range: 30–84
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.6Season APEX380

20.3Auto5.7

24.6Teleop14.9

16.3Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	20
teleop	100	50
endgame	27	30
foul	0	0
total	156	100

Result

Final score

156 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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