FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.01 – 51.72

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.3 ±11.7

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 76.52Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11496Jurassic JayHawks

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 28.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 35.43Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±13.9

7221Viking Robotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 13.98Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 42.56Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4568Robot Commander

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -4.82Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 11496, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7197, 11496, 9312

Auto

24.6 16%

Teleop

92.7 62%

Endgame

32.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7221, 9594, 4568

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7221, 9594, 4568

Auto

9.4 21%

Teleop

14.2 32%

Endgame

20.3 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.3
Score range: 23–169
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.3Season APEX181.3

24.6Auto9.4

92.7Teleop14.2

32.6Endgame20.3

24Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	21
teleop	85	43
endgame	27	20
foul	0	0
total	158	84

Result

Final score

158 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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