FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 143.84

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133 ±13.9

9212Infinity

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -9.27Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9183RoboComets

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 10.98Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -2.74Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.9 ±12.8

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 36.66Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 23.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 83.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9212, 9183, 9753

/ 100 compat

Projected

-1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9212, 9183, 9753

Auto

8.8 0%

Teleop

-2.2 46%

Endgame

-11.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5205, 11444, 1481

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5205, 11444, 1481

Auto

24.4 17%

Teleop

71.8 51%

Endgame

45.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-1pts

Blue projected score143.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.8
Score range: -29–173
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133Season APEX257.9

8.8Auto24.4

-2.2Teleop71.8

-11.4Endgame45.9

72Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	20	26
endgame	19	38
foul	0	0
total	52	85

Result

Final score

52 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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