FIM District Jackson at Columbia Event presented by Consumers Energy Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.81 – 240.62

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±10.4

5676The H.E.R.O.E.S

Season APEX 119.7Event APEX 68.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 143.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 127.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337 ±10.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 42.86Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 127.62Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 70.14Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5676, 2611, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5676, 2611, 9210

Auto

62.3 18%

Teleop

190.3 56%

Endgame

84.6 25%

Strengths

· 2611 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 3668, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 3668, 11386

Auto

47.7 20%

Teleop

129.9 56%

Endgame

55.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score339.8pts

Blue projected score240.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.2
Score range: 212–369
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 159.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.9Season APEX337

62.3Auto47.7

190.3Teleop129.9

84.6Endgame55.1

87Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	48
teleop	142	170
endgame	104	43
foul	0	5
total	281	266

Result

Final score

281 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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